Why Do Some Civil Wars Not Happen?

Peace and conflict research has predominantly sought to understand the causes of phenomena such as civil war, terrorism, and state failure. While studies on causes of war have constituted the overwhelming majority of research in the discipline, a peace causes-perspective has not been yet elaborated. [...]
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Peace and conflict research has predominantly sought to understand the causes of phenomena such as civil war, terrorism, and state failure. While studies on causes of war have constituted the overwhelming majority of research in the discipline, a peace causes-perspective has not been yet elaborated. This book merges these two perspectives into a comprehensive analysis framework that is capable of grasping both escalation and de-escalation processes. Based on a most-similar systems design, the similarly conflict-prone cases of Peru and Bolivia constitute the empirical basis for analysis. These two cases fit the overarching research objective of understanding escalation variance due to their structural commonalities but different outcomes. While Peru experienced civil war (1980-1995), no such large-scale escalation occurred in Bolivia. This is striking given the structural similarities with Peru as well as a number of escalation episodes leading the country to the brink of civil war (2000-2008).The book argues for a twofold reflection in peace and conflict studies: first, in order to grasp conflict situations on the threshold of civil war, it is necessary to merge quantitative and qualitative frameworks into a dynamic understanding of escalation. Second, conflict-inhibiting factors need to be included into any escalation analysis framework.