Somalia

Close analysis of how non-state actors adapt to state collapse is critical for effective strategies of peace building, development, and counter-terrorism in those crises. In Somalia, the nature of state collapse has changed significantly since 1995. Armed conflict is more localized; lawlessness is b [...]
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Close analysis of how non-state actors adapt to state collapse is critical for effective strategies of peace building, development, and counter-terrorism in those crises. In Somalia, the nature of state collapse has changed significantly since 1995. Armed conflict is more localized; lawlessness is better contained by local authorities; and warlords have been weakened by an emerging commercial elite whose interests lie in stability, not plunder. Risk-aversion drives political behaviour and partially explains the reluctance of local elites to support a revived central government. Somalia has to date not been particularly attractive as a safe haven for terrorists due to the risk of betrayal and extortion foreigners face there. Instead, terrorist networks have used Somalia principally as a short-term transshipment site into Kenya. Efforts to revive a central state in Somalia risk creating a "paper state" - one which lacks a capacity to govern and is prone to police corruption, providing an environment in which terrorist networks thrive.