Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Successfully Make and Use Forecasts

Everybody forecasts and listens to forecasters, whether they are investors or not. Forecasting is an essential and unavoidable part our lives. Decisions about future outcomes are critical for success or failure in everything from marriage, career choices, business, and investments. No one always mak [...]
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Everybody forecasts and listens to forecasters, whether they are investors or not. Forecasting is an essential and unavoidable part our lives. Decisions about future outcomes are critical for success or failure in everything from marriage, career choices, business, and investments. No one always makes the right choices. Yet being right the majority of the time, especially for investors and businesses, is everyone's goal.This book is about improving almost anyone's ability to make more correct decisions. The book willProvides sobering evidence on just how hard it is to successfully forecast the economyShowcases how and why economists succeed and sometimes fail to correctly forecast the futureExamines what has made economic forecasters relatively successful and others not so successful in order to learn from past mistakesChief UBS US Economist Maury Harris is uniquely equipped to reveal how much can be learned from economists' successes and mistakes.